After Batley, now is the time for Labour to set out its positive post-Covid vision
By all accounts, Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership of the Labour Party was given a stay of execution following Kim Leadbeater’s narrow win in last week’s Batley and Spen by-election. After weeks of murmurs and briefings about his future, Starmer has bought himself some time, and questions about his leadership will disappear at least during the Parliamentary summer recess. He will, however, need to use this time wisely, or party conference season will be difficult for him later this year. Now is the time for Starmer to flesh out what a Labour recovery from coronavirus looks like and signal to voters what a Starmer Labour Party stands for.
There has been a lot of debate since his initial election over whether Starmer’s Labour Party has any policies. Others have argued that they have too many. The reality is more nuanced – with many of the party’s current proposals being temporary ‘fixes’ to the Government’s COVID-19 strategy. But this approach has left the party open to the criticism of ‘carping from the sidelines’ and that Starmer was merely ‘Captain Hindsight’. While both accusations are frankly unjust and at least a bit harsh – especially as on a number of occasions, most notably with the circuit breaker lockdown back in the autumn, Starmer has been proven right – they have stuck, and have dented the Labour leader’s approval ratings since the turn of the year.
The other aspect of Labour’s current approach has been a perceived lack of clarity about what the party actually stands for. Following an initial successful introduction to the public in 2020, party activists reported back during the May local elections campaign that voters did not know much about Starmer’s politics or him as a person. This was clearly an issue in Hartlepool as well where the Conservatives won the Parliamentary seat off Labour – only the third time the governing party has won a seat from the Opposition in thirty years.
It is now time for the Labour leader to decisively step out from the shadows and make his mark. If he doesn’t do it now, he might never get another chance.
Most opposition leaders only get a couple of chances to make a first impression – usually when they take over and when the actual general election campaign starts and they receive the same amount of coverage as the governing party. They also have their party conference speeches, and 2021 looks set to be a big one for Keir Starmer.
Much like David Cameron – the last man to go from around 200 seats and take his party into government at the following election – Keir Starmer’s first year and a bit has been characterised by an initial good first impression followed by a flat few months. In both 2006 and 2007 Cameron had to demonstrate to both the party and the country that he was a credible Prime Minister-in-waiting, a similar position to the current Labour leader. In fact, Starmer has performed slightly worse than Cameron, and will therefore need to make an even bigger splash when the party faithful gather in Brighton in September.
One way to do that is to start setting out what Labour stands for and how a Labour Government would make the most of the opportunities after two of the biggest changes to affect the country since the War – Brexit and the pandemic.
This week’s announcement by the new Shadow Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, on ‘buying British’ aims to embrace the first. Both Reeves and Starmer acknowledge that Brexit is settled, and that there will be no re-entry to the EU for at least a generation – but how do you demonstrate that? By signalling to voters you are willing to use the extra powers Brexit has given you to actively support British industry. The party tried that under Jeremy Corbyn, but it will need to hammer the message home more consistently if it is to cut through with voters. The other aspect the party needs to embrace more is Global Britain, and the opportunities from new trade deals. While the economic benefits are much smaller than EU membership, pointing this out risks irritating Leave voters who already see the party as too pro-Remain. Highlighting the benefits of a closer relationship with Australia, Canada, and the Indo-Pacific can help reiterate Labour’s post-Brexit message, while also signalling to voters the party has moved on from the referendum debate.
The other aspect the party needs to address is the post-Covid world. This will be crucial in order to seize the ‘change’ narrative that is so decisive at election time and to show to the country it is ready to face the future. In his regular Times column this week, the former Conservative leader and Foreign Secretary Lord Hague made an interesting point, that the Labour Party only wins elections “when it is the future”, as in 1945, 1966, and 1997.
COVID-19 has given the party a lot to go on. It could look at the plight of insecure workers, especially given the rise of the gig economy, and call for the furlough scheme to be made permanent as a way of upskilling and retraining workers during economic downturns when unemployment would normally go up. It could make the next 18 months all about the ‘Covid generation’ and unveil a pledge card of policy proposals aimed at helping school-aged children with their studies, the NHS operations that haven’t been able to take place during the pandemic, and the trial backlog that has accumulated in British courts during the crisis due to a combination of Conservative cuts in the 2010s and the difficulty in conducting trials in a pandemic. It might also go big on the issue of financial scams and fraud, and use the current Parliamentary session to put down a marker and call on the Government to tackle financial crime and pension scams – which have soared during the pandemic – once and for all.
Between 2006 and 2007 David Cameron hugged a husky, backed New Labour’s education reforms, and unveiled an inheritance tax pledge that spooked Gordon Brown into not calling an election in the autumn of 2007. Those three policy positions shaped the Cameron leadership in its first two years, and put him on a path to Downing Street. So far, the Labour Party has merely nit-picked at current Government policy, without really setting out a vision of its own. All Keir Starmer has to do now is pick his battles, and hope that the voters sit up and pay attention. His leadership may otherwise be unable to recover, even after the lifeline the Batley by-election has thrown him.
Dan Julian
Cicero/amo