Beyond Wakefield: Tory troubles aren’t a substitute for inspiring policies
On trial for conspiring to overthrow the Republic, Ancient Roman Senator Cataline was famously asked by fellow Senator Marcus Cicero, “How long, Cataline, will you abuse our patience?”. This phrase has stood the test of time. It regularly appears across the globe on occasions of political strife, typically paraphrased onto a handheld sign imploring a particular leader to do the right thing and step down. Part of its appeal is its simplicity. The pithy question perfectly captures both a sense of exhaustion with the status quo and a deep willing for change.
Exhaustion and a deep willing for change would appear to sum up the present mood of the UK electorate. Two years into the Boris Johnson experience after a landslide victory, there is an overwhelming sense of buyer’s remorse amongst the public. The Prime Minister’s personal poll ratings are plummeting to parts unknown as voters react to Partygate and his leadership of a Government whose headline-grabbing strategies deliver little change, cannot control rapidly rising inflation, and is quickly losing the support of its own MPs.
For Labour, the Tory’s downward spiral sets them up nicely for the upcoming by-election in Wakefield in which they need only to point at the state of the Government to garner support. Current polling forecasts a sizable victory for the party, allowing them to reclaim a traditional so-called “red wall” seat and Leader Kier Starmer to argue Labour is once again electable in constituencies that are crucial to its success.
Yet, whilst success in Wakefield would be meaningful, Labour cannot afford to rest on its laurels. A victory there will not produce an electoral playbook that could be replicated across the UK and by-election results do not always predict the result of the forthcoming General Election. For example, David Cameron’s Conservatives lost three seats in by-elections before increasing his vote share and winning a majority in 2015. Moreover, the current Prime Minister's history of electoral success should not be discounted.
Labour must instead begin to articulate what a post-Conservative Britain would look like if it is to truly capitalise on this moment of plunging support for the Government. Simply not being the Tories will prove insufficient come polling day. Voters need to be presented with an alternative to their current circumstances; a clear vision of how a Labour Government would deal with the cost of living, tackle the housing crisis and resolve trade issues resulting from Brexit. These should come in addition to continued recognition that the UK must be steadfast in its support for Ukraine and leading from the front with action on climate change.
An inspiring manifesto of policies is also critical given Labour is not just up against the Conservatives. Labour’s success in the late 1990s and early 2000s was propped up by strong support in Scotland but highlighting Tory blunders will not dethrone the SNP and win back these voters. To recapture the electorate north of the border, Starmer and his team must make the case for the union and its power to reverse the damage of austerity and set the country on a better path.
How Labour communicates this policy package will be key. They must avoid presenting a collection of disparate solutions and ensure their message is coherent. Each policy should feed into the same simple narrative: Britain needs Labour. Only Labour can give the country the wholesale refresh that is desperately needed after 12 years of Conservative misrule and malaise.
This should also be delivered by new figures from across the party. The public must be familiarised with the next generation of Labour politicians to reinforce the impression that this is the party of tomorrow whose new thinkers understand the problems people face and have the answers.
Only a forward-looking Labour that consistently delivers a message of optimism will appeal to the whole nation. Winning the election will depend on overcoming the political divisions that have dogged the UK in recent years, not pandering to each of them separately. Starmer’s team must be singing from the same hymn sheet, and this song should have the same resonance in Brighton as it does in Blyth Valley.
The propensity of Johnson to lurch from crisis to crisis is only a good thing for Labour. But the Government’s current mess could be seen as a missed opportunity if the opposition fails to convincingly set out its stall for a different Britain. Rather than asking “How long, Tories, will you abuse our patience?”, the party should be answering “How, Labour, will you change our fortunes?”.
Ben Robinson
Interel