Why Labour’s answer to the European question will soon have to be articulated
Whilst the electorate may be forgiven for thinking that Brexit is “done” following the successful passage of Boris Johnson’s deal through Parliament, the feeling remains that Labour’s historic answer to the European question has yet to be articulated.
The issue of EU membership should be seen primarily as a modern electoral, rather than an ideological issue for the Labour Party. Between 2016-2019, polling of party members demonstrated that Europhile attitudes were dominant, to the extent that Jeremy Corbyn was forced to back a second referendum on Brexit in Labour’s 2019 manifesto.
Indeed, the pro-EU coalition between the so-called “moderates” and young, idealistic Corbynistas, was a rare example of ideological unity during the Corbyn years.
However, in light of the party’s worst defeat since 1935, which saw the collapse of Brexit-backing “Red Wall” seats, Keir Starmer has sought to re-cast the party beyond the divisions of Brexit. By whipping his MPs to vote for the Prime Minister’s Brexit deal, Labour’s former-Remainer-in-chief was desperate to demonstrate that Labour was again listening to its traditional core voter base.
Yet, escaping from the legacy of the Brexit saga has proven difficult for both the front bench and the party’s rank and file for a set of highly significant reasons. Firstly, by virtually all economic projections, the “thin” nature of the deal agreed with the EU will deprive Britain of a robust recovery from the impact of COVID-19.
The agreement with Brussels is fatally flawed in the respect that it covers goods but not services. And even a deal that was designed to make the flow of goods smoother between the UK and EU has forced our businesses to pull back. Data released by the Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) this week found that 23% had temporarily stopped selling to the EU, with 11% now considering a permanent halt. New red tape and customs processes have been described as “systemic problems”.
Crucially, with the British services sector comprising 80% of the economy, the very premise of the Government’s deal is short-sighted and destructive for the businesses that have been placed on life support throughout the pandemic. Providing no clarity for the mutual recognition of qualifications and standards, and the shrivelling of service export opportunities to the Single Market will in time choke off the recovery.
Secondly, the Labour Party rightly cannot and should not stand idly by as the United Kingdom is carved up between the British mainland and Northern Ireland. Ongoing threats made by Number 10 and the Cabinet Office to yet again break the terms of the Northern Ireland Protocol are likely to draw continued, principled opposition from Shadow Ministers, as Labour’s legacy of peace on the island is threatened.
Concerningly, the combination of the Johnsonian tendency to trample over democratic norms and conventions, whilst pulling the UK away from a multilateral global system has alarmed Joe Biden’s White House. The spoils of Brexit, once promised through a major new trade deal with the United States, look to now be on hold as a result.
In summarising the fallout of Brexit, it is clear that the economic benefits are scarce, and the geopolitical consequences are abundant. As hard as Starmer may try, a trade deal riven with gaps, defects and barriers means that it is inevitable that further negotiation will have to take place, forcing Starmer to state his opinion on the required depth of future British alignment with the Single Market.
Not convinced? The treaty mandates that both sides will review the terms of the deal in 2024/25. The battle lines have been drawn for (yet another) election tainted by Brexit.
Starmer, sensing what lays ahead has already said that he will not seek a mandate from the British public to seek wholesale renegotiation, nor refer to Europe in his 2024 manifesto. Instead, Labour will spend the next three years unveiling a host of new transformational domestic and economic policies, whilst introducing his Shadow Ministerial team.
So the theory goes; Labour will then be able to fight the election on its own terms, exposing the Government’s mishandling of the COVID pandemic, and the non-existent delivery of its “levelling up” agenda, amounting to nothing more than a PR exercise.
Whilst he will have the full support of the majority of members to do this, with shrewd strategy guiding the way, the inevitability of European ghosts of the past reappearing remains stark.
The campaign to re-join the EU has notably already begun amongst sections of the Labour grassroots, and as it did during Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership, expect mounting pressure to build on Starmer to start banging on about Europe once again. That is because Labour’s values demand a progressive internationalism, a defence of the Union, and an active and constructive policy towards the wellbeing of businesses and workers.
Labour will this decade have to face up to the reality imposed on Britain by the Conservatives, and answer the European question that Starmer’s inspiration, Harold Wilson, once so successfully dodged.
Luke Downham
FleishmanHillard